Popcorn Thinking in a Potato Chip World

What kind of eater are you?

When you are thinking about what to eat with lunch, do you dive head-first into a bag of potato chips without regard to calories and fat content?

Do you even consider those questions?

If you do care or ever worry about it, consider eating popcorn instead of chips. Why?

• There are three (3), simple ingredients: Popcorn, sunflower oil, and salt
• There is very little "processing" involved. To be healthy, we are supposed to stay away from processed food.
• Here are the ingredients of my favorite crab chips: "Potatoes, cottonseed oil, salt, spices, dextrose, paprika, maltodextrin, sugar, onion powder, honey powder (maltodextrin honey), inosinate and disodium guanylate, citric acid. The maltodextrin is derived from corn."

Which taste better? Of course, the crab chips are a festival of flavor.

Which is better for you? Likely, popcorn. And popcorn is not so bad.

Fruit or celery is even better for you…but I'm a realist. It's really all about managing uncertainty. How will it affect me? My weight? My cholesterol? My health? Right?

Right.

In your business, do you manage those things which are uncertain and may/may not happen? Do you dive right into the chips everyday or do you opt for the broccoli side dish? (We all know, cruciferous vegetables are really healthy choices, to include broccoli, cabbage, kale, and radishes. We don't always choose them for lunch though, even though we know it's a better - albeit less delicious - choice.)

With that in mind, are you actively managing the "what ifs," or just hoping they don't show up? Are you addressing the risks you cannot see coming or just reacting when they hit?

Are you prepared for that black swan event?

Black swan events: These risks are very unlikely but have the potential for extreme impact. These type of events are very difficult to predict and are unexpected and unknowable. COVID was a black swan event, for example. (Going back in history, all swans were presumed to be white because all historical records showed them with white feathers. This was discovered to be incorrect because swans in Australia had "dark plumage."^[1])

Lawsuits can be black swan events. Recent statistics show a significant rise in lawsuit activity. "In 2024, 135 lawsuits against corporate defendants resulted in a nuclear verdict - those that surpassed \$10 million…"^[2] "This represents a 52% increase over 2023."^[3]

"'Thermonuclear verdicts,' or those greater than \$100 million, increased to a record high of 49 in 2024, compared to 27 in 2023."^[4]

"While many factors have influenced this growth, Marathon's research identified corporate mistrust; social pessimism; erosion of tort reform; and public desensitization to large numbers as among the most important… The attitudes and experiences of jurors play crucial roles in predicting verdict outcomes, and studies have shown that Millennials are generally more pro-plaintiff than the prior generation, are less trusting of the American company and more highly prioritize ethical matters and considering which brands to trust."^[5]

Why should you care about this?

"Surveys of corporate counsels indicate that reaching pre-trial settlements has become more difficult due to increasing legal costs, regulatory changes, and high settlement demands. A shift toward "juror activism" may also become further pronounced as Gen. Z and Millennials compromise a larger share of juries. With the growth of attorney advertising - which now eclipses \$2.4 billion each year - aggressive parties plaster American televisions with ads that seek plaintiffs for mass tort litigation and amplify denigrating claims."^[6]

Further, there were two (2) other surprising facts to consider:

"Other law firms have purchased branded content in local news outlets, profiling their cases as "causes" aimed at bringing about social change."^[7]

"The trucking and automotive industries have also been rocked by a series of eye-popping verdicts: 15 in 2024, for \$1.4 billion. Marathon's research has found that these sectors are among the top targets of nuclear verdicts, mainly in wrongful death and negligence cases. However, several of these cases in 2024 were product liability cases that centered on allegations about defective designs."^[8]

What is actionable here?

"Regulatory compliance management. Many businesses are involved in very complicated regulatory environments, and it can be a challenge for organizations to prioritize areas for the allocation of resources for compliance management and control. Risk management can help organizations prioritize resources by exploring this question: Which of these regulatory requirements, if not met, has the biggest potential to cause harm or affect the achievement of the stated business objectives?"^[9]

To prepare for these risks, in our business, I can tell you this: Keep your head on a swivel and be proactive. Here are four (4) takeaways which you can apply today:

• Early intervention on problems will always save the dealership more money than waiting to see what may happen or procrastinating. Fix issues now with "now management."
• Use humor to solve problems whenever possible. I was just at a Pittsburg Pirates baseball game on a beautiful summer day. While I was on the phone, I saw an usher address a middle-aged woman standing nearby. The usher, walking slowly - who was of a similar age to the woman she was approaching - as she addressed the patron, said, "Ma'am, I'm sorry but there's no smoking in the stadium." The lady, who fumbled with her cigarette, blurted out, "Oh, I'm so sorry." The usher - with a big smile on her face and in a semi-loveable way quickly retorted - "Oh, no your nooooot!" They both laughed and the situation was diffused (pun intended). Anytime you can use humor to resolve a situation, consider it, as long as it's artfully and tastefully done.
• Consider each situation with the probability of a poor outcome in mind. What does that look like? What might be the potential negative impact? Start out with the end result in mind. Don't want to take the time to do that assessment? Then you are absolutely moving too fast. When you move too quickly, you will make mistakes, I promise.
• Remember preventative controls and measures will always save the dealership money versus exercising mitigative solutions where you are trying to stop a problem that's already in front of you.

So, back to that original question: what kind of eater are you?

What kind of operator are you?

In the grand buffet of business decisions, what you choose matters more than ever. The courtroom doesn't care if you were hungry or just in a hurry - it only cares what's on the plate. What tastes good in the short term might be a heartburn-inducing regret later.

Take the better vantage point. Don't wait for the black swan to land on your roof.

Chips or popcorn? It's never really about the snack. It's always about the strategy.

1. Britannica, "Black swan event," https://www.britannica.com/topic/black-swan-event

2. "Corporate Verdicts Go Thermonuclear," 2025 Edition, Marathon Strategies.

3. "Corporate Verdicts Go Thermonuclear," 2025 Edition, Marathon Strategies.

4. "Corporate Verdicts Go Thermonuclear," 2025 Edition, Marathon Strategies.

5. "Corporate Verdicts Go Thermonuclear," 2025 Edition, Marathon Strategies.

6. "Corporate Verdicts Go Thermonuclear," 2025 Edition, Marathon Strategies.

7. "See how this St. Louis law firm is turning cases into causes, tallying three nine-figure verdicts in one year," St. Louis Magazine, December 12, 2024.

8. "Corporate Verdicts Go Thermonuclear," 2025 Edition, Marathon Strategies.

9. "What's Wrong with Enterprise Risk Management?" Journal of Risk and Financial Management. June 29, 2024.